Trends · 2026-09-01
Who's rising, and how fast.
LLM momentum, adoption speed, breakouts, and the events behind them, recomputed daily from the Tidelines archive.
Momentum, 30-day share change
Top gainers to the right, biggest losers to the left. Labels are percentage-point change over the last 30 days.
Momentum leaderboard
Ranked by 30d share change. Accel column = (7d Δ/day) − (30d Δ/day) — positive means picking up speed.
| 30d trend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Z.ai: GLM 5.3 Flash | 11.57%↑9.61 | +9.61pp | +9.61pp | ↑1.05 | |
| 2 |  Tencent: Hy4 preview | 10.59%↑8.18 | +8.18pp | +8.18pp | ↑0.90 | |
| 3 |  MiniMax: MiniMax M3 | 5.05%↑4.67 | +4.67pp | +4.67pp | ↑0.51 | |
| 4 |  OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna | 10.88%↑7.03 | +7.03pp | +2.44pp | ↑0.92 | |
| 5 |  Google: Gemini 3.7 Flash | 2.74%↓1.44 | -1.44pp | +1.72pp | ↓0.26 | |
| 6 | Z.ai: GLM 5.3 | 2.06%↑1.09 | +1.09pp | +1.52pp | ↑0.10 | |
| 7 | OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Sol | 2.07%↑0.50 | +0.50pp | +1.42pp | ↑0.02 | |
| 8 |  NVIDIA: Nemotron 3.5 Lightning | 0.93%±0 | 0.00pp | +0.74pp | ↓0.03 | |
| 9 |  DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 | 10.09%↑0.66 | +0.66pp | +0.31pp | ↑0.08 | |
| 10 | MiniMax: MiniMax M2.7 | 0.47%↑0.17 | +0.17pp | +0.17pp | ↑0.02 | |
| 11 | DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash Vision Exp | 0.28%↑0.11 | +0.11pp | +0.09pp | ↑0.01 | |
| 12 | OpenAI: gpt-oss-20b | 0.43%↑0.28 | +0.28pp | +0.07pp | ↑0.04 | |
| 13 |  Claude Opus 5 | 1.44%↑0.05 | +0.05pp | -0.01pp | ↑0.01 | |
| 14 | Anthropic: Claude Sonnet 5 | 1.32%↑0.31 | +0.31pp | -0.01pp | ↑0.04 | |
| 15 |  Qwen: Qwen3.8 27B | 0.21%↓0.01 | -0.01pp | -0.02pp | ↓0.00 |
Adoption velocity
Models whose first observation in the archive is within the last 90 days. Days-to-0.5% / 1% is how long it took to first cross that share. Click any column to sort.
| Tencent: Hy4 preview | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10.59%↑8.18 |
| Ling 3.0 Flash Fin (free) | 4 | 1 | — | 0.74%↑0.45 |
| MiniMax: MiniMax M2.7 | 4 | — | — | 0.47%↑0.17 |
| Thinking Machines: Inkling | 5 | — | — | 0.20%↓0.03 |
| Z.ai: GLM 5.3 Flash | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11.57%↑9.61 |
| MiniMax: MiniMax M3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5.05%↑4.67 |
| DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash Vision Exp | 9 | — | — | 0.28%↑0.11 |
| Meta: Muse Spark 1.2 Contributor | 9 | — | — | 0.27%↑0.06 |
| Qwen: Qwen3.8 27B | 12 | — | — | 0.21%↓0.01 |
| Z.ai: GLM 5.3 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 2.06%↑1.09 |
Adoption curves, aligned to day zero
Each line is a recent model's share since its first appearance in the archive.
How to read: Every line is one recently launched model. The x-axis counts days since it first appeared in the archive; the y-axis is its share. Darker strokes crossed 1% within 14 days.
Breakout detector
Models whose recent 7d mean is more than 2σ above their trailing 30d mean. Shaded band shows ±2σ; the dot marks the first day the trigger fires.
Event timeline
First appearances in the top 20, sizeable 30d gains, and 5% threshold crossings — pulled from the leaderboard history.
2026-09-01 · Rank jump
Z.ai: GLM 5.3 FlashZ.ai: GLM 5.3 Flash gained 9.61pp of share over 30 days.
2026-09-01 · Rank jump
Tencent: Hy4 previewTencent: Hy4 preview gained 8.18pp of share over 30 days.
2026-09-01 · Rank jump
MiniMax: MiniMax M3MiniMax: MiniMax M3 gained 4.67pp of share over 30 days.
2026-09-01 · Threshold crossed
MiniMax: MiniMax M3MiniMax: MiniMax M3 crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-08-29 · Threshold crossed
Tencent: Hy4 previewTencent: Hy4 preview crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-08-29 · Threshold crossed
MiniMax: MiniMax M3MiniMax: MiniMax M3 crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-08-29 · Threshold crossed
DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 0423DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 0423 crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-08-29 · Threshold crossed
NVIDIA: Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA: Nemotron 3 Ultra crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-08-28 · New in top
Tencent: Hy4 previewTencent: Hy4 preview first appears; now #3 at 10.59%.
2026-08-27 · Threshold crossed
Z.ai: GLM 5.3 FlashZ.ai: GLM 5.3 Flash crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-08-27 · Threshold crossed
OpenAI: GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-08-27 · Threshold crossed
NVIDIA: Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA: Nemotron 3 Ultra crossed 5% of measured traffic.
Market half-life at #1
Each block is a run at the top of the leaderboard. Width is proportional to days held #1; color follows the lab.
- 2026-08-03DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 07315d
- 2026-08-08Tencent: Hy33d
- 2026-08-11DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 07316d
- 2026-08-17Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.51d
- 2026-08-18DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 07314d
- 2026-08-22Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.51d
- 2026-08-23DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 07315d
- 2026-08-28OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna1d
- 2026-08-29Tencent: Hy4 preview1d
- 2026-08-30Z.ai: GLM 5.3 Flash3d
10 distinct #1 models over 30 days. Median run length 3d.
All views are recomputed from the daily archive; accuracy improves as history grows.