Trends · 2026-10-14
Who's rising, and how fast.
LLM momentum, adoption speed, breakouts, and the events behind them, recomputed daily from the Tidelines archive.
Momentum, 30-day share change
Top gainers to the right, biggest losers to the left. Labels are percentage-point change over the last 30 days.
Over the last 30 days, StepFun: Step 5 Preview gained the most share (+11.59pp) and OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna lost the most (-13.08pp).
Momentum leaderboard
Ranked by 30d share change. Accel column = (7d Δ/day) − (30d Δ/day) — positive means picking up speed.
| 30d trend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  StepFun: Step 5 Preview | 14.17%↑11.59 | +11.59pp | +11.59pp | ↑1.27 | |
| 2 |  DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | 16.97%↓12.97 | -12.97pp | +9.88pp | ↓2.18 | |
| 3 |  Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-Flash | 5.81%↓0.89 | -0.89pp | +5.08pp | ↓0.30 | |
| 4 |  OpenAI: GPT-6 Luna | 4.04%↓0.31 | -0.31pp | +3.69pp | ↓0.17 | |
| 5 |  Anthropic: Claude Opus 5.5 | 3.36%↓0.15 | -0.15pp | +2.39pp | ↓0.10 | |
| 6 |  NVIDIA: Nemotron 3 Ultra | 3.95%↑0.14 | +0.14pp | +1.44pp | ↓0.03 | |
| 7 |  Z.ai: GLM 5.3 | 2.82%↑0.84 | +0.84pp | +1.19pp | ↑0.08 | |
| 8 | Anthropic: Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 1.47%↑0.10 | +0.10pp | +1.07pp | ↓0.02 | |
| 9 | OpenAI: GPT-6.1 Sol | 1.23%↓0.14 | -0.14pp | +0.80pp | ↓0.05 | |
| 10 | NVIDIA: Nemotron 3.5 Lightning | 0.81%↑0.29 | +0.29pp | +0.42pp | ↑0.03 | |
| 11 |  MoonshotAI: Kimi K3 | 1.49%↑0.35 | +0.35pp | +0.37pp | ↑0.04 | |
| 12 | NVIDIA: Nemotron 3 Super | 0.63%↑0.25 | +0.25pp | +0.35pp | ↑0.02 | |
| 13 |  Qwen: Qwen3.6 35B A3B | 0.49%↑0.17 | +0.17pp | +0.17pp | ↑0.02 | |
| 14 | Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-Pro | 0.98%↑0.26 | +0.26pp | +0.08pp | ↑0.03 | |
| 15 | Qwen: Qwen3.8 27B | 0.25%↓0.12 | -0.12pp | +0.06pp | ↓0.02 |
Adoption velocity
Models whose first observation in the archive is within the last 90 days. Days-to-0.5% / 1% is how long it took to first cross that share. Click any column to sort.
 Google: Gemini 4 Argon | 0 | 0 | — | 0.57%±0 |
| StepFun: Step 5 Preview | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14.17%↑11.59 |
| Anthropic: Claude Haiku 5.5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1.06%↓0.34 |
| Upstage: Solar Mini 4 | 12 | 1 | — | 0.52%↓0.14 |
| OpenAI: GPT-6.1 Sol | 14 | 1 | 6 | 1.23%↓0.14 |
| Anthropic: Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 1.47%↑0.10 |
| Anthropic: Claude Opus 5.5 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 3.36%↓0.15 |
| OpenAI: GPT-6 Sol | 21 | 0 | — | 0.30%↓0.26 |
| Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-Flash | 22 | 0 | 1 | 5.81%↓0.89 |
| OpenAI: GPT-6 Luna | 22 | 1 | 1 | 4.04%↓0.31 |
Adoption curves, aligned to day zero
Each line is a recent model's share since its first appearance in the archive.
How to read: Every line is one recently launched model. The x-axis counts days since it first appeared in the archive; the y-axis is its share. Darker strokes crossed 1% within 14 days.
Breakout detector
Models whose recent 7d mean is more than 2σ above their trailing 30d mean. Shaded band shows ±2σ; the dot marks the first day the trigger fires.
Event timeline
First appearances in the top 20, sizeable 30d gains, and 5% threshold crossings — pulled from the leaderboard history.
2026-10-14 · Rank jump
DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash gained 9.88pp of share over 30 days.
2026-10-14 · Rank jump
StepFun: Step 5 PreviewStepFun: Step 5 Preview gained 11.59pp of share over 30 days.
2026-10-14 · Rank jump
Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-FlashXiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-Flash gained 5.08pp of share over 30 days.
2026-10-14 · Rank jump
OpenAI: GPT-6 LunaOpenAI: GPT-6 Luna gained 3.69pp of share over 30 days.
2026-10-10 · Threshold crossed
Tencent: Hy4 previewTencent: Hy4 preview crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-10-09 · Threshold crossed
StepFun: Step 5 PreviewStepFun: Step 5 Preview crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-10-08 · New in top
StepFun: Step 5 PreviewStepFun: Step 5 Preview first appears; now #2 at 14.17%.
2026-10-08 · New in top
Anthropic: Claude Haiku 5.5Anthropic: Claude Haiku 5.5 first appears; now #20 at 1.06%.
2026-10-08 · Threshold crossed
OpenAI: GPT-6 LunaOpenAI: GPT-6 Luna crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-10-06 · Threshold crossed
Tencent: Hy4 previewTencent: Hy4 preview crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-09-30 · New in top
OpenAI: GPT-6.1 SolOpenAI: GPT-6.1 Sol first appears; now #17 at 1.23%.
2026-09-29 · New in top
Anthropic: Claude Sonnet 5.5Anthropic: Claude Sonnet 5.5 first appears; now #16 at 1.47%.
Market half-life at #1
Each block is a run at the top of the leaderboard. Width is proportional to days held #1; color follows the lab.
- 2026-09-03Tencent: Hy4 preview3d
- 2026-09-06OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna1d
- 2026-09-07Tencent: Hy4 preview3d
- 2026-09-10OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna1d
- 2026-09-11DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 07311d
- 2026-09-12OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna3d
- 2026-09-15Tencent: Hy4 preview1d
- 2026-09-16DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash4d
- 2026-09-20Z.ai: GLM 5.3 Flash3d
- 2026-09-23DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash22d
10 distinct #1 models over 42 days. Median run length 3d.
All views are recomputed from the daily archive; accuracy improves as history grows.