Trends · 2026-10-08
Who's rising, and how fast.
LLM momentum, adoption speed, breakouts, and the events behind them, recomputed daily from the Tidelines archive.
Momentum, 30-day share change
Top gainers to the right, biggest losers to the left. Labels are percentage-point change over the last 30 days.
Momentum leaderboard
Ranked by 30d share change. Accel column = (7d Δ/day) − (30d Δ/day) — positive means picking up speed.
| 30d trend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | 22.64%↑7.50 | +7.50pp | +19.11pp | ↑0.43 | |
| 2 |  Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-Flash | 7.16%↑1.44 | +1.44pp | +6.44pp | ↓0.01 | |
| 3 |  OpenAI: GPT-6 Luna | 5.21%↑0.25 | +0.25pp | +4.85pp | ↓0.13 | |
| 4 |  Anthropic: Claude Opus 5.5 | 3.35%↑1.82 | +1.82pp | +2.37pp | ↑0.18 | |
| 5 |  NVIDIA: Nemotron 3 Ultra | 3.95%↑0.73 | +0.73pp | +1.45pp | ↑0.06 | |
| 6 | OpenAI: GPT-6.1 Sol | 1.28%↑0.62 | +0.62pp | +0.85pp | ↑0.06 | |
| 7 | Anthropic: Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 1.01%↑0.36 | +0.36pp | +0.61pp | ↑0.03 | |
| 8 |  SpaceXAI: Grok 4.7 | 0.70%↑0.48 | +0.48pp | +0.41pp | ↑0.06 | |
| 9 |  Z.ai: GLM 5.3 | 2.36%↑0.48 | +0.48pp | +0.08pp | ↑0.07 | |
| 10 |  Google: Gemma 4 26B A4B | 0.26%↑0.05 | +0.05pp | +0.02pp | ↑0.01 | |
| 11 |  StepFun: Step 5 Preview | — | 2.59%±0 | 0.00pp | 0.00pp | ↓0.00 |
| 12 | Anthropic: Claude Haiku 5.5 | — | 1.40%±0 | 0.00pp | 0.00pp | ↓0.00 |
| 13 | DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 | 1.04%↑0.59 | +0.59pp | 0.00pp | ↑0.08 | |
| 14 |  MoonshotAI: Kimi K3 | 1.34%↑0.47 | +0.47pp | -0.01pp | ↑0.07 | |
| 15 | NVIDIA: Nemotron 3 Super | 0.39%↑0.14 | +0.14pp | -0.01pp | ↑0.02 |
Adoption velocity
Models whose first observation in the archive is within the last 90 days. Days-to-0.5% / 1% is how long it took to first cross that share. Click any column to sort.
| StepFun: Step 5 Preview | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.59%±0 |
| Anthropic: Claude Haiku 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.40%±0 |
| inclusionAI: Ling 3.1 Flash | 5 | — | — | 0.33%↑0.06 |
| Upstage: Solar Mini 4 | 6 | 1 | — | 0.63%↑0.41 |
| OpenAI: GPT-6.1 Sol | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1.28%↑0.62 |
| Anthropic: Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1.01%↑0.36 |
| Anthropic: Claude Opus 5.5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 3.35%↑1.82 |
| OpenAI: GPT-6 Sol | 15 | 0 | — | 0.64%↑0.11 |
| Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-Flash | 16 | 0 | 1 | 7.16%↑1.44 |
| OpenAI: GPT-6 Luna | 16 | 1 | 1 | 5.21%↑0.25 |
Adoption curves, aligned to day zero
Each line is a recent model's share since its first appearance in the archive.
How to read: Every line is one recently launched model. The x-axis counts days since it first appeared in the archive; the y-axis is its share. Darker strokes crossed 1% within 14 days.
Breakout detector
Models whose recent 7d mean is more than 2σ above their trailing 30d mean. Shaded band shows ±2σ; the dot marks the first day the trigger fires.
Event timeline
First appearances in the top 20, sizeable 30d gains, and 5% threshold crossings — pulled from the leaderboard history.
2026-10-08 · New in top
StepFun: Step 5 PreviewStepFun: Step 5 Preview first appears; now #9 at 2.59%.
2026-10-08 · New in top
Anthropic: Claude Haiku 5.5Anthropic: Claude Haiku 5.5 first appears; now #15 at 1.40%.
2026-10-08 · Rank jump
DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash gained 19.11pp of share over 30 days.
2026-10-08 · Rank jump
Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-FlashXiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-Flash gained 6.44pp of share over 30 days.
2026-10-08 · Rank jump
OpenAI: GPT-6 LunaOpenAI: GPT-6 Luna gained 4.85pp of share over 30 days.
2026-10-08 · Threshold crossed
OpenAI: GPT-6 LunaOpenAI: GPT-6 Luna crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-10-06 · Threshold crossed
Tencent: Hy4 previewTencent: Hy4 preview crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-09-30 · New in top
OpenAI: GPT-6.1 SolOpenAI: GPT-6.1 Sol first appears; now #17 at 1.28%.
2026-09-28 · Threshold crossed
Z.ai: GLM 5.3 FlashZ.ai: GLM 5.3 Flash crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-09-28 · Threshold crossed
Tencent: Hy4 previewTencent: Hy4 preview crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-09-26 · Threshold crossed
NVIDIA: Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA: Nemotron 3 Ultra crossed 5% of measured traffic.
2026-09-26 · Threshold crossed
DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 crossed 5% of measured traffic.
Market half-life at #1
Each block is a run at the top of the leaderboard. Width is proportional to days held #1; color follows the lab.
- 2026-09-03Tencent: Hy4 preview3d
- 2026-09-06OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna1d
- 2026-09-07Tencent: Hy4 preview3d
- 2026-09-10OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna1d
- 2026-09-11DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Flash 07311d
- 2026-09-12OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna3d
- 2026-09-15Tencent: Hy4 preview1d
- 2026-09-16DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash4d
- 2026-09-20Z.ai: GLM 5.3 Flash3d
- 2026-09-23DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash16d
10 distinct #1 models over 36 days. Median run length 3d.
All views are recomputed from the daily archive; accuracy improves as history grows.